AIR TRANSPORT Future trends in civil aviation
Reimagining the future of civil aviation
BILL READ FRAeS reports on Cranfield University’s Singapore & Southeast Asia Summit which looked at the changing trends in civil aviation in the Asia-Pacific region and how they might evolve in the future.
An artist’s impression of a future vertiport in Singapore. Volopcopter/Sky Sports
On 12 May, Cranfield University held the third of its online conferences focusing on the current and future state of civil aviation in different regions of the world. Hosted from Singapore, the Singapore & Southeast Asia Summit – Reimagining the Future of Civil Aviation conference – focused on the Asia-Pacific region. The summit was the third in a series of events hosted by Cranfield University and ATAG in advance of the United Nations COP26 climate change conference in November 2021 in the UK. Cranfield held two previous summits in the UK in October 2020 and from North America in February this year.
Not surprisingly, a major topic at the conference was the impact of Covid-19 on the aviation industry. While speakers agreed that the pandemic had a dramatic impact on the civil aviation sector with an unprecedented reduction in revenue and passenger volumes, it had also had some unexpected benefits in accelerating the pace of new technology and adaptation of digitalisation at ‘turbo speed’.
Other speakers also highlighted the possibility that Covid-19 might never be fully eradicated or might be replaced with another infectious disease in the future. The problem was not just how to cope with the present pandemic but to build resilience in aviation to cope with the shock of a future crisis.
Contactless interfaces will become more common at airports both for boarding and security. Lufthansa, Delta AirwaysAnother important topic of discussion was global warming and the aviation industry’s response to reducing CO2 emissions. Even before the onset of Covid-19, the aviation industry had placed a strong emphasis on climate change mitigation and carbon emission reductions toward the Paris Agreement climate targets and the United Nation’s sustainability goals. However, coronavirus presented the civil aviation industry with a unique opportunity to accelerate its transformation towards achieving a 2050 net zero carbon emission target through modernisation of its fleet and the increased application of digital technologies.
The summit was hosted from Singapore, supported by the British High Commission, so it came as no surprise that several of the presentations focused on the current situation in that region. Singapore depends heavily on aviation and tourism – both of which have been badly hit by Covid-19. A Singapore government official explained how Covid had ‘devastated aviation’ with Changi Airport currently operating at only 3% of its pre-Covid levels. The development of the new T5 terminal project is now being reconsidered.
Turning to the subject of air transport, the conference speakers were confident that airlines would eventually recover from its present downturn but that the way that airlines operate may be very different from what they were doing before. Over the long term, the growth in passenger numbers was expected to resume, with the fastest growth in the Asia-Pacific region. In the short term, while there would be pent-up demand for air travel from some passengers, airlines would also have to work hard to restore the confidence of more reluctant passengers to resume air travel.
One leading Asian airline operator commented on the adverse effects of nationalistic border control policies in different countries making air transport more difficult, including different health and testing rules for passengers. The same speaker was also critical of national governments providing financial support to prop up unsustainable state airlines. Airports also came under criticism for inefficient designs that caused huge amounts of waste. Air traffic control areas were inefficient too as a result of nationalistic factors, with each country having its own region of airspace.
For passengers, one expected trend was an increase in digitalisation, including e-tickets, digital ID and touchless check-ins in airports, as well as more digital technology aboard aircraft, including more touchless technology, the increasing use of passenger personal electronic devices, the substitution of in-flight magazines with digital alternatives and the replacement of duty-free sales with e-commerce.
The conference also looked at the challenges currently facing airports. Over the longer term, airport operators are still expecting demand for air travel to return with an airport operators’ representative predicting a sixfold increase in passenger numbers by 2050. However, in the shorter term, a return to even 2019 levels might not occur until 2029.
During the pandemic, airports faced many problems. Not only was there a huge reduction in passenger throughput but there were also extra costs to cater for those people who did still travel, including testing and quarantine.
As with airlines, post-Covid-19 passengers returning to airports will find an increased use of digitalisation. The pandemic has already seen an exponential growth in contactless payments and this trend will be reflected in more automated check-ins and digital boarding passes. Many airports have also been working on developing biometric systems which use facial recognition for security and immigration check-ins. It was estimated by one speaker that using such technology could reduce boarding times by up to 40%.
BP and Qantas announced a net zero partnership in January. BP/Qantas
In addition to improving the passenger experience, another challenge facing airports is that of the environment. Prior to the pandemic, the main concern of airport planners was how to increase their runway or terminal capacity while limiting its environmental effects.
The challenge is now not just to reduce the environmental impact of new infrastructure in airports but in everything that airports do, from ground handling operations, air traffic control and transport links. The changes that airports make need not only to be environmentally friendly but also to be sustainable. These could include the introduction of new infrastructure for aircraft using alternative fuels, such as SAF, hydrogen or batteries, electric ground vehicles, more use of renewable energy, recycling and green waste management policies. All these improvements would need to be paid for and potential financiers would need to be convinced that the investments were worthwhile.
Every airport is currently at a different stage in this process. “Airports are on their own journeys to lower CO2,” said one speaker. However, many of the emissions coming from airports were from stakeholders not under the control of the airport, such as third-party companies and national governments. “We need a partnership for states and other stakeholders,” added another speaker.
The progress made by one airport can also have an effect on others or indeed the wider community. “Airports have a role as influencers,” said one speaker. There was also the issue of how airports should adapt to the introduction of new forms of transport, such as fast regional rail links or urban air mobility aerial taxis. “Airports are currently focused on increasing throughput,” remarked another speaker. “However, what perhaps they should be thinking about is moving towards a new role as a point-to-point global hub.”
Changi Airport green initiatives. Changi Airport
Following up the theme of more environmentally-friendly and sustainable fuels for aircraft, much time in the conference was devoted to how new disruptive technology energy sources might be developed and introduced to replace liquid fossil fuels. At present, there are three main categories under consideration – batteries and hydrogen fuel cells to power electric aircraft and sustainable aviation fuels (SAF). Each of these categories have their advantages and disadvantages. Electric aircraft powered by batteries currently have a limited range and speed. Electric aircraft powered by hydrogen would have a longer range but face considerable safety challenges in their use on aircraft, as well as new infrastructure at airports. SAFs have the advantage that they can be used as drop-in fuels to power existing aircraft and airport infrastructure but are currently in short supply with high prices.
Volocopter plans to launch eVTOL air taxi services in Singapore from 2023, having already demonstrated a prototype there in September 2019. Volocopter
The speakers agreed that there was no one ‘magic bullet’ which could be used exclusively to reduce carbon emissions but all the different solutions were needed. Much work still needed to be done to improve the efficiency of all three aircraft alternative power sources. “We still have a long way to go,” observed one speaker. “Battery technology is still limited and hydrogen will not come in until the 2030s, so in the near term we have to fall back on SAFs which are still very expensive and very limited. To ensure a sufficient supply of SAFs in the future, we will have to scale up production by a factor of 100 between 2025-2050.” Another speaker predicted that many of the aircraft flying in 2050 would still have the same basic design as those flying now. While batteries and hydrogen might be in use for smaller and regional aircraft, larger and long-range aircraft would still need to be powered by liquid fuels.
Airports need to be prepared for both present and future diseases. Changi Airport
The conclusion was that, in both the short and longer term, SAFs were the most direct and efficient way to reduce aviation emissions. Much work is now under way to develop the availability and use of SAFs as an aviation fuel. National government is looking at ways to create SAF supply chains. Energy companies are looking at ways to develop the production of SAF, engine manufacturers are testing powerplants using SAF and airlines have begun tests to run aircraft on 100% blends of SAF. Research is also being done into green and sustainable feedstocks for SAFs, using waste materials or cooking oil rather than food-related products. Research is also under way into the development of synthetic aviation fuels which convert CO2 and biogas into renewable fuels.
However, there are still significant challenges to be overcome. Much work into SAF development was still needed, as well as significant infrastructure investment. Many speakers emphasised that the development of SAFs should be a joint exercise in which companies and governments worked together for their mutual benefit. “Global co-operation has never been so important,” stated one speaker. “There should be a fair share of clean energy. No country should be left behind.” The aviation industry also needed to work and co-operate with other industry sectors which were developing and planning to use sustainable fuels, such as road transport. The focus should also not just be on the supply side but needed to include customers to inform and encourage them to use sustainable fuels.
The conference also looked at the development of urban air mobility systems in which people will have the option of making journeys with and between cities in autonomous electric-powered air taxis. “The Jetsons will happen,” commented one speaker. “The first flying taxis have already been test-flown over Singapore and many other cities are working on plans to integrate eVTOLS to improve transport connectivity. “The functions of airports will move into cities,” said another speaker. However, there are still many challenges to be overcome in terms of technology, regulation, safety, air traffic management, infrastructure and public acceptance.
Changi Airport’s green plan. Changi Airport
However, to develop future aircraft, infrastructure and fuels, companies will need to find people with the right skills to make these future plans a reality. The past year has not been a good one for anyone working in the aviation industry with many losing their jobs and there was no demand for their services. As demand picks up again, aviation companies not only have to entice these workers back but also to recruit new engineers with the data and digitalisation skills needed to develop future technology. However, people with such skills will be in high demand from other technical sectors. The conference speakers outlined a number of ways that the supply of new entrants could be increased, through broadening the diversity of new recruits and making the prospect of a career in aerospace an exciting one. “It’s all about the people,” concluded one speaker. “We need to appeal to youth for future skills.”
In conclusion, the conference agreed that aviation was going through uncharted skies. “Everything we thought aviation was going to be has changed,” remarked one speaker. There were many challenges to be overcome, from financial recovery from the effects of the pandemic, improving the passenger experience, an increase in digitalisation, the development of new technology and fuels, new types of aircraft, meeting climate change targets and making all aspects of the aviation industry more sustainable and resilient.
However, to achieve this, all the different stakeholders within the industry needed to work together to learn from each other and to seek common goals.
“It’s encouraging to see how far we’ve come,” remarked one speaker. “Country by country, we can make a difference but it is better to work collectively. To be certain about the future we need massive international collaboration to achieve global solutions.”