SPACEFLIGHT Commercial satellite operators and ASAT

Wake-up call for space threats​

As space gets more contested, ALLEN ANTROBUS FRAeS, Key Account Military Space for Airbus DS in the UK, assesses the impact of the increased militarisation of space for the commercial space sector.

ESA

The anti-satellite (ASAT) weapons test this summer, reported by the UK and US Governments, and denied by the Russians, is another indicator that in-orbit tests and direct ascent tests (DA-ASAT) appear to be on the rise. According to the Secure World Foundation, the Russians have conducted ten possible ASAT tests since 2014; over the same period, the Chinese have conducted four tests and the Indians two. This trend is worrying to all actors in space, including the UK space commercial sector.

Orbital manoeuvres in the dark

On 15 July 2020, a Russian military satellite, Kosmos 2543, released a high-speed projectile from the main body of the spacecraft and, although there was no indication the projectile collided with another satellite, this action, according to US Space Command, was ‘consistent with a test of a new anti-satellite capability’. This event followed a Russian DA-ASAT test on the 15 April 2020 from a system termed Nudol and which was launched from Northern Russia but again did not collide with another satellite. The Nudol system is designed to engage targets in low Earth orbit between the 150-2,000km above the Earth’s surface. Along with these ASAT tests, both the Russians and Chinese have engaged in orbit behaviour that could be interpreted as aggressive. In 2014, a Russian satellite called ‘Luch’ manoeuvred around the geostationary belt and came close to both French and Italian military communication satellites. More recently, from July 2017 to December 2019, a Chinese satellite SJ-17 made a series of manoeuvres in the geostationary belt and conducted a series of space rendezvous with a number of other Chinese satellites; these manoeuvres took SJ-17 past the UK MoD’s Skynet 5A satellite.

Russian satellite ‘Luch’ and the UK’s Skynet 4E satellite. CelesTrak

Space has always been the preserve of the military and intelligence services of the US and Russian (previously the USSR) governments but, since the mid-1980s, there has been little overt testing of anti-satellite weapons. The status quo changed when the Chinese government shot down a defunct weather satellite (Fengyun-1C) on 11 January 2007. This destructive event created over 3,000 pieces of debris and was widely condemned by the international community. Since then, the US, Russia and, more recently, the Indians have conducted tests, as well as rendezvous and proximity operations (RPO), which could be interpreted as a test run for possible military action. International law and treaties offer little advice or guidance on how to interpret these actions. Article IV of the Outer Space Treaty of 1967 declares that: ‘Parties to the treaty undertake not to place in orbit around the Earth any objects carrying nuclear weapons or any other kinds of weapons of mass destruction’. Consequently, as the treaty only mentions nuclear weapons and WMD, then it could be interpreted that other types of weapons are allowable. Any misinterpretation on the use of RPO or anti-satellite tests could have grave consequences for the UK space sector but also the wider UK economy.

A critical dependency​

Space assets have significantly changed the way we live our lives on Earth. Position, navigation and timing data from the US GPS constellation or the EU’s Galileo constellation have transformed the transport and financial sectors that enable ‘just-in-time’ supply chains, support millions of pounds of global financial transactions and synchronisation of everything from utility networks to mobile phone systems. Accurate data from meteorological satellites have transformed the way farmers cultivate the land reducing waste and improving food production. Large satellites, over 36,000km above Earth, broadcast news and sports direct to our home. In the not too distant future, megaconstellations such as OneWeb will provide broadband services direct to homes and this will enable those of us who live in remote locations to benefit from ‘fibre-like’ speeds from space. All of this is at risk if a conflict between nations extends into space.

Satellite mega constellations such as OneWeb are set to bring benefits but also increase congestion in orbit. OneWeb

Although space is vast, it is a finite resource; there is already congestion in certain orbits and the management of the spectrum is becoming more challenging for the International Telecommunications Union (ITU) – the UN agency tasked to allocate global radio spectrum and satellite orbits. Additionally, debris caused by launching satellites, in-orbit failures, explosions and collisions continues to grow and is an issue for all spacefaring nations and satellite operators. NASA estimates there are more than 23,000 pieces of orbital debris larger than 10cm hurtling through space at 8km/sec and any collision will involve considerable energy. The most significant events have been the collision of a Russian communications satellite (COSMOS 2251) with a US commercial satellite (Iridium 33) and the Chinese ASAT test. These events have caused over 5,000 pieces of debris that can be tracked and possibly as many as 200,000 objects that are too small to be tracked effectively; even these smaller objects could cause a mission-ending event for a satellite operator.

However, the precise risk to operators is still unknown and, although there is a growing understanding of the issue, no one can be sure how dangerous the current situation is and what the impact of future launches of mega-constellations will be. In the late 1970s, a NASA scientist called Donald Kessler predicted that if there was too much debris in orbit then it could create a chain reaction whereby more and more objects collide creating more debris; a concept termed the Kessler Syndrome. The UN, through the Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee (IADC), continues to lead the international effort on space debris research activities and has guidelines which describe practices that can limit the generation of space debris in the environment.

Launch of Russian anti-satellite missile. Russian MoD

Implications for commercial satellite operators

So what can the UK and, in particular, the commercial entities such as Airbus Defence and Space, Inmarsat, OneWeb and Surrey Satellite Limited do to alleviate this risk?

At state level, the UK requires a clear national space strategy that seeks to ensure the UK can access and use space now and in the future. It is five years since the publication of the National Space Policy and a national strategy should clearly articulate how the UK’s civil, commercial and defence sectors will co-ordinate their activities; instrumental to this will be the National Space Council, led by the Chancellor. Previous space strategies have focused on growth and innovation and, while any future strategy should seek to ensure the UK space sector can continue to grow, create jobs and drive prosperity, this can only happen if the environment is stable and secure. It is now over two years since the then Defence Secretary, Gavin Williamson, announced at the UK Defence Space Conference that this country would have its first Defence Space Strategy and one is sorely required. The planned strategy will require collaboration across Government, in particular between the UK Space Agency (UKSA) and the MoD but it should also include UK satellite operators and the wider space enterprise.

In parallel to the strategy, UK commercial companies will continue to support the efforts of the UK Government in defining and implementing norms of behaviour in space. The FCO, through its use of its establishment at Wilton Park, has run a number of successful international events that have included government policymakers, space agency personnel and commercial entities where norms of behaviours have been debated and discussed. A number of events have examined the changing space environment which has seen an increase in new actors and the potential outcomes from developing mega-constellations of hundreds or possibly thousands of satellites; space is no longer the preserve of the military.

However, the rules and regulations covering activity in space have not significantly moved since the earliest concepts and, consequently, there is now a significant gulf between the limited legal regime and the activity taking place in space. There is a requirement to establish a set of norms of behaviour for operating in-orbit. These norms should seek to sustain the space environment for future generations by avoiding collisions between spacecraft and debris while simultaneously reducing uncertainty around satellite manoeuvres that can be perceived as threatening.

A more joined-up approach needed

In order for the UK to understand what is occurring in space and to monitor the risk associated with orbital debris and any future weapons tests, then the UK should create a national space operations centre. The centre should be the focus for integrating data from current systems, such as the RAF’s Phased Array Radar at RAF Fylingdales, and from commercial providers, such as Space Insight which operate ground-based telescopes that monitor satellites in higher orbits. Currently both the UKSA and the MoD are pursuing different space situational awareness initiatives; UKSA is involved in the EU programme called the Space Surveillance and Tracking initiative and the MoD has been involved with the US-led Combined Space Operations programme. The UK was the first formal partner to sign up for an American-led coalition called Operation Olympic Defender in July 2019. Given the UK has now formally left the EU, it will need to re-evaluate its current efforts with both defence and civil partners.

A Commercial Integration Cell has been set up in the RAF’s SpOC at High Wycombe. UK Space

Commercial satellite operators and space situational awareness partners should be included in any future activity, as they can contribute to the overall understanding of the space environment. In particular, given that commercial operators may have a more comprehensive knowledge base and are as concerned about nefarious activity as the Government, then they could offer more detailed analysis of any ongoing interference with a satellite, network or signal. Additionally, commercial space situational awareness companies are not normally hampered by national security issues and could start to highlight poor or misleading actions and this, in turn, could start to drive different behaviours.

One recent success has been the establishment of the Commercial Integration Cell inside the Royal Air Force’s Space Operations Centre at RAF High Wycombe. The cell has been created by UK space, the space sector trade association which represents over 90% of the space companies in the UK and was formally established in July 2020. The aim is to enable the day-to-day military-commercial interface and establish mechanisms to enhance space situational awareness, electro-magnetic interference awareness and provide indicators and warnings of any potential threats.

Last year ESA took the unusual step of going public with a close encounter of its Aeolus satellite with a SpaceX Starlink to highlight the dangers of potential collisions in orbit. ESA

Developing the ‘rules of the road’ ​

Independent of government, commercial operators can also play another role. Many companies are signatories to the Space Sustainability Coalition which outlines the ‘Best Practices for the Sustainability of Space Operations’. These measures, which build upon guidelines designed by the IADC and the UN’s Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (COPOUS), seek to tackle the issue of orbital debris and have argued the need for mitigation measures to ensure that space is accessible for the future. With a predicted number of future space launches of between 70 to 90 a year and a number of those launches delivering 30 or more satellites per launch then the future is challenging. The European Space Agency is recommending the removal of five to ten large objects from regions in space that have high density. Surrey Satellites Limited designed and manufactured the Remove Debris mission that included four innovative experiments to test how to clean up space. Another commercial company, Astroscale, based at Harwell is establishing a national in-orbit servicing facility that will help with the removal of debris.

Rules of the road

However, there is much more work that needs to be done. The UK needs to better understand the role the US Department of Commerce will have in developing ‘rules of the road’ in its pursuit for space traffic management. As an example, these rules could specify how spacecraft might prioritise manoeuvres if the operators find themselves in a situation where the collision risk is high. In September 2019, ESA was required to perform a ‘collision avoidance manoeuvre’ of its Aeolus satellite due to a potential collision with a SpaceX satellite. There is also more work required to include national defence and intelligence entities within such forums as the Space Data Association (SDA). The SDA allows operators to share relevant space information operator-to-operator to coordinate space activities and the inclusion of defence and intelligence assets would be a significant step to reducing risk. Finally, there should be significant effort made across spacecraft manufacturers, governments and supranational bodies, such as ESA, to strive to de-orbit all spacecraft at the end of their operational life in order to sustain the environment for the future.

The risk to spacecraft in orbit has grown significantly over the last decade and the UK needs to prepare to deal with the double threat of orbital debris and suspicious behaviour. While individual departments are leading efforts to tackle these issues, the lack of a clear strategy bringing coherence across the Government is required. UK commercial space companies will be fundamental in supporting this effort.

RAeS Air Power Virtual Conference – 7-8 December 2020, Online, London


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