DEFENCE The UK deterrent in 2060

Forecasting extreme threats to the UK​

Ahead of a RAeS Weapon Systems and Technology Group Conference later this year, TIM MARSHALL FRAeS, chair of the WS&T Group, previews the long term threats that may inform the UK’s Integrated Defence, Security and Foreign Policy Review.

MoD

For the Society’s Weapon Systems and Technology Specialist Group (WS&T SG) the use of complex weapon systems, for the defence against threats from potential adversaries, is day-to-day business. A complex weapon system encompasses many disciplines and it is the combination of these, in the right measures, that provide the equipment capability to successfully deter or defend against attack.

Over the past few years, the WS&T SG has explored maximising the value of weapon systems, air defence and hypersonic speed in their conferences. In conjunction with other SGs, we’ve had lectures on the history of weapon development and also the use of weapon-like kinetic impactors for planetary defence against near-Earth asteroids. It’s a rich and fascinating mix of technologies and systems; none of the SG members are experts in it all, so being a part is often a great education. And that’s what the Society is all about, isn’t it?

Disposing the deterrent

During our meetings, discussions take us many places. One such discussion took us to the year 2060. At that time, the current direction for the UK’s Nuclear Deterrent will see it at the point of requiring disposal. What would happen next? What technologies and facilities does the UK need to preserve/maintain in order to inform the Government of its options? At some time in the future, the Prime Minister will be faced with the ‘what’s next’ question. How will they know how to answer it? This was an intriguing subject with some very sensitive issues; we wanted to explore it but not get into hot water! So we went back to the drawing board, to look at the reasons why the deterrent exists and examine the requirement from there.

NATO

The National Security Strategy and Strategic Defence and Security Review 2015 stated that ‘it would be irresponsible to assume that the UK will not in the foreseeable future be confronted with the kinds of extreme threat to our security or way of life which nuclear weapons seek to deter’. We agreed that freedom of operation of the deterrent could be hampered by a detailed definition of the extreme threats with which the UK could be confronted. We believed that, up to and beyond 2060, the nature of the extreme threat was likely to evolve. But how? Who was working on this? Are all extreme threats able to be countered by a nuclear deterrent? Is there a credible alternative? Will nuclear weapons be relevant in 2060? We decided to explore the nature of extreme threats first, then look to see what technology was required to counter them. 

We knew through the SG’s links to the Project on Nuclear Issues (PONI), run by RUSI, that RUSI was interested in the future of the UK Nuclear Deterrent and the extreme threats it was there to counter. We had worked with RUSI before. We met with them and explained our plans and they were keen to join in. Now planning for a joint conference could begin!

Considering the threat

The Society and RUSI will host a series of conferences, the first one in September 2020 considering extreme threats to the UK, beyond the near-term, up to 40 years into the future. The second conference in the series is due to take place in 2021 and will examine technology choices associated with deterring or countering the extreme threats identified in the first.

The first conference seeks to establish the nature of extreme threat that could confront the UK. Discussion will centre around the deterrence or countering of the implementation of the threat, either by nuclear or other technological methods. The topics we decided to include were:

  • National Policy
  • Quantum Computing
  • Cyber
  • Space
  • Social Engineering
  • Radiological Devices
  • Chemical
  • Biological
  • Nuclear
  • Electromagnetic Pulse
  • Large Terrorist Attacks
  • Directed Energy

We already have confirmed speakers for the programme and here’s a short summary of some of the subjects we are going to cover:

Space: The weaponisation of space covers satellite denial, space- and ground-based missiles/effectors, jamming, space mines, directed-energy (microwave and laser). The Outer Space Treaty does not ban military activities within space, military space forces, or the weaponisation of space, with the exception of the placement of weapons of mass destruction in space.

Space Weather and Single Event Effects: Solar storms affect satellite operations and the Sun’s 11year solar cycle has high and low points of activity. Deliberate attacks on satellite timing systems can have similar effects.

Chemical/Biological: We all know the effect a random pandemic can have on society and economic systems. Can a human virus be targeted? Can the economic effect of a global pandemic be predicted and modelled and used to gain an advantage?

Social Engineering: Human hacking either on a large scale or on a precision-attack basis and the anxiety around ‘deep fake’ videos and generalised distrust caused by fake news can be manipulated to extreme effect.

Quantum Computing: Speed of computation will have a disruptive effect on cryptography. The sleight-of-hand of a pickpocket will seem slower than a glacier to a quantum-speed run on a bank’s computer system. Critical national infrastructure and everyday commerce could be other victims.

Threats to precise timing systems: Communication, navigation and financial systems, amongst others, all rely on precision timing for efficient operation. Upsetting the synchronisation of these systems, especially if undetected, can have catastrophic effects.

We’ll also learn about the Future Threat Understanding and Disruption Programme, which works to ensure that the UK understands the potential defence and security impact of emerging science and technology. This is to reduce the chance of future ‘shocks’ and ensure the UK is prepared to respond to and counter future threats. The programme conducts assessments of emerging challenges raised by:

  • developments across the full spectrum of science and technology
  • policy
  • changing and emergent environments
  • relevant social, legal and ethical opinion that could have a significant impact on UK defence and security.

So, from the WS&T SG’s initial discussions, to the fascinating and educational programme that has been created, we have been fortunate to have an opportunity to explore all kinds of important issues facing modern society.

Extreme Threats to the UK, RAeS Conference (In partnership with the Royal United Services Institute) 17 September 2020, London


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