AIR TRANSPORT Long and thin routes
Going the distance
As four-engine airliners disappear, a new generation of ultra-efficient single-aisle airliners is allowing a new breed of airlines to exploit the potential for ‘long and thin’ routes, connecting far-away cities with point-to-point travel. MARTIN CARTLEDGE reports.
Breeze Airways. Airbus
When you get it right, as in the case of such airlines as Southwest, Ryanair and easyJet, the low-cost model works really well. However, those looking to stretch their wings somewhat further have not always managed to turn a decent profit, particularly on what might be termed ‘thin’ routes.
The topic that has dominated our lives for so long now has, as we all know too well, had an even greater effect on the aviation and travel industries than on many others. Covid-19 all but shut down air travel back in March 2020 and hastened the demise of many an airline, particularly those who were operating in markets such as these.
Historical attempts
Whereas long routes have historically, in the main, been operated by twin-aisle aircraft with more than two engines, particularly over large bodies of open water, it has not been completely thus. In fact, the very first twin-engined non-stop crossing of the Atlantic was, of course, Alcock and Brown in their Vickers Vimy, although not something that would be viable today or perhaps even contemplated. Real changes started to happen around 1976 when the Airbus A300 started crossing the Atlantic under a 90 minute ICAO rule. The US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) was initially less enthusiastic about this when the then FAA director had the following response to Boeing’s request for similar: “It’ll be a cold day in hell before I let twins fly long-haul, overwater routes.”
Freddie Laker’s Skytrain is a key inspiration for today’s low-cost airline models.
However, things really started to move in 1985, following the same organisation’s increase in ETOPS time to 120 minutes (ETOPS-120). TWA operated the first ETOPS-120 service in 1985 (Boston-Paris), Singapore with an A310 in 1986 and, perhaps even more significantly, the single-aisle Boeing 757-operated Tucson to Honolulu in 1992 with most of the US majors following suit using their twins over the Atlantic on services to Europe, often on routes that would not have supported a widebody.
Even the ‘baby’ Airbus A318 got in on the act in 2009 on what was certainly a long route (LCY-SNN-JFK) and, in terms of market segment and particularly available seats per flight (it was a 32 seat all business layout), was definitely a ‘thin’ route. Witness the birth of ‘long and thin’.
Long-haul low-cost services are also not new.
Freddie Laker, of course, was the trailblazer with his ‘Skytrain’ services. It took until the turn of the millennium for others to really take to the idea in numbers – for example, Zoom, Oasis Hong Kong, Norwegian, Level, Scoot, AirAsia X and Jetstar, the latter two being the only ones of these still operating. It just seemed too difficult to make larger aircraft profitable, even the more efficient models currently available.
Enter the single-aisle fleets
In the early days of long-haul low-cost services there were limited options to go with, as few singleaisle aircraft had the range required if the route was thin.
However, the increased availability of aircraft able to fly long distances non-stop started to increase with the introduction of the Boeing MAX series and Airbus’ A321 which has gone even further with first its LR and then XLR versions. Even the A220-100 has a maximum range of 3,450nm (6,390km).
The range of these aircraft now means that route pairings like LHR-JFK and FRA-IAD are easily within reach. The A321XLR is not that far away from managing LHR-LAX.
Airlines, like Air Transat from Canada, started to use these aircraft types, in its case the A321LR, on thinner routes to destinations that were previously operated by larger aircraft. Many others took the Ryanair approach and went via secondary airports. Norwegian was an example of this, using the 737 MAX on transatlantic routes from Edinburgh, Belfast, Dublin, Cork and Shannon to New York Stewart International Airport and Providence Airport in Rhode Island near Boston with plans for more, although these services ultimately failed.
Left to right: A JetBlue Airways Airbus A321-231. Air-Baltic is about to begin a service from Riga to Dubai.
The Covid factor
As we know, Covid has struck a major blow to the world’s fleets, most noticeably the ultra-large aircraft like the 747 and A380, with many airlines either hastening the aircraft’s retirement or choosing to take them out of the fleet purely because of the current situation and what they expect to happen once Covid is hopefully under some level of control.
There are a number of reasons why these larger aircraft might find it difficult to get back into the air with the world’s carriers. The older models are now much less efficient than more modern versions, even if they are twins as opposed to four-engined models which are an increasingly rare sight in the skies. In the short term at least, demand for air travel is still going to be depressed with the International Air Transport Association (IATA) forecasting that pre-Covid levels will not be reached in some markets until 2024, with large domestic markets probably earlier.
There are some more subtle reasons in the mix also. There is an increasing awareness of people’s personal carbon footprint which may lead to a move away from fuel-thirsty aircraft, perceived or otherwise.
Left to right: Avelo Airlines’ Embraer E195. Wizz Air presence at the recent Dubai 2021 airshow.
It is thought that domestic travel and leisure travel might well be the drivers in the increase in air travel which will have a reduced level of business passengers. Even as markets are opened up there are still likely to be added costs with testing and quarantine which could again depress the markets with individuals and businesses unwilling to pay such costs.
The use of virtual meetings forced upon companies by the inability and unwillingness to travel is likely to have a long-term effect on how business meetings are conducted, as many companies find that this type of meeting is not only a much cheaper option but, in some cases, actually more valuable. What all of this means is a possible longer-term reduction in business travel. In addition, those to whom money is less of a factor have possibly found the benefits of business jets and all the advantages this type of travel can bring to the user. This, along with the cargo sector, has seen a huge increase in business over the last 18 months.
With the majority of premium cabins being in the wide-bodied fleets, this means that these profitable cabins can no longer help subsidise less than full economy cabins further down the aircraft.
Looking to the future
What might this mean for a post-pandemic aviation industry? As previously mentioned, pre-pandemic numbers are unlikely to be reached until around 2024 and, if demand changes in the long term, this might mean that the industry grows in a different fashion, from a smaller base point without the need for hundreds of seats and large business cabins. Enter the long-range single-aisle fleets with typical two-class seating of around 180-200 rather than 250-350 for a widebody.
PRE-PANDEMIC NUMBERS ARE UNLIKELY TO BE REACHED UNTIL AROUND 2024 AND IF DEMAND CHANGES IN THE LONG TERM, THIS MIGHT MEAN THAT THE INDUSTRY GROWS IN A DIFFERENT FASHION
We can already see the announcement of new routes, some of which could be considered long and thin and operated by new-generation single-aisle aircraft. However, the well-documented problems with the 737 MAX may have given a step up to operators with the A321 and at a time when smaller aircraft will most probably form part of the post-Covid recovery strategy for operators with long-haul routes on their wish list.
One example is Aer Lingus with its new UK division linking Manchester with points in the US and Barbados, although only the MAN-JFK route is scheduled to be operated by the airline’s A321LRs. It could be argued that this is not a long and thin route, although the number of seats on MAN to New York’s airports had reduced considerably pre-Covid. Another example is JFK and JetBlue which has a large base there and which announced a number of routes to the UK, also with its new A321LRs.
Air Transat was an early operator of the A321LR over the Atlantic and has recently completed the longest ever commercial single-aisle flight covering 4,750 miles (7,600km) in eight hours 32 minutes from Montreal, Canada to Athens in Greece. (The A321LR has actually flown further but in test conditions from Male, Seychelles, the 5,466 miles (8,797km) back home to Toulouse in France in around eleven hours.) Another new A321 long-haul service is by TAP Air Portugal from Lisbon to Montreal and Maceió.
American Airlines has also announced that it intends to use the A321LR on services from Philadelphia to European destinations.
With the Boeing 737 MAX series slowly coming out of its enforced slumber and the largest version, the MAX10, recently making its maiden flight, these types of routes are likely to increase. Air Canada is one example, with a route announced again to Manchester in 2022 utilising the MAX8.
One, perhaps surprising, entrant into the long and thin marketplace is the A220. It has not got the legs to match even the LR version of the A321 but is right there in the mix with the 737 MAX series, beating the MAX10 while just under the MAX8/9.
AirBaltic has recently announced a new route from its Riga hub to Dubai which is scheduled to take 6hrs 45mins to cover the 2,684m (4,319km) journey. This is not the longest route the A220 undertakes; that is Air Austral’s Reunion to Chennai pairing at 2,870m (4,620km). However, it actually takes less time than airBaltic’s service.
Another surprising new entrant-to-be is Norse Atlantic Airways which seems to be bucking the trend as it aims to fill the market left by Norwegian. In fact, the similarities are quite striking, giving rise to some commentators simply calling it Norwegian 2.0. Norse intends to offer services on the same routes using the same aircraft; that is the actual 787s previously used by Norwegian but with ‘high cabin utilisation’.
New entrants
It is not only the existing airlines that are utilising long-distance single-aisle aircraft. There have been quite a few other low-cost operators either starting services or making announcements of the same over the past few months which is quite a commitment in the middle of a global pandemic that has crippled the industry.
That said, it might not be as foolhardy as it could look at first glance. The costs of operating an airline have fallen quite considerably with many suppliers offering discounted rates, including the big-ticket items from Boeing and Airbus. Even if these prices are still too high, there are many perfectly serviceable aircraft sitting idly in deserts either for sale or stored by their lessor owners and consequently being offered at attractive rates. Another resource sitting idle are experienced, trained staff, either on furlough or redundant from failed or downsized airlines.
Many are going to be serving short to medium routes in markets where there is existing traffic but, certainly in their eyes, enough demand for them to enter. Flyr is a typical example of this, aiming at routes from its home in Norway to popular European destinations. PLAY is similar, although it is aiming at filling the gap that was left when WOW ceased trading with services between Iceland, Europe and North America with a fleet of A321s just like WOW air.
Wizz Air Abu Dhabi is yet another A321neo operator but this time the niche is that there is no low-cost alternative in Abu Dhabi. Looking at the underserved thin routes in the US are Breeze Airways and Avelo Airlines, with the former on longer routes utilising the Embraer E195 initially on lease, with the Airbus A220 as the long-term preferred option. Avelo intends on focusing on shorter routes with Boeing 737-800s.
Longer-range entrants include flypop, which has dubbed itself as ‘the UK’s only international long-haul low-cost airline’ and recently announced that its base is to be London Stansted. The first routes are to be to Amritsar and Ahmedabad in India. The aircraft of choice is, however, to be the Airbus A330.
Would you fly single-aisle?
One question still not fully answered is the customer perception of flying long distances on a narrowbody aircraft, something most people will associate with a trip to sunspots around three hours away from their local airport. Will passengers feel claustrophobic or cramped? Will the very thought of flying for six, seven or even eight hours in a single-aisle be thought of as simply ‘wrong’?
Air Transat is at pains to point out that, in fact, the economy seats in its A321s are 1.5 inches wider than their A310s, so the perception of being cramped might be just that – a perception. In addition, the Airbus ‘Airspace’ cabins have been designed to give a feeling of greater space, further mitigating the lack of actual space available.
There are many questions still unanswered regarding a post-covid recovery. However, there are options out there with existing airlines and brave entrepreneurs ready to go long and thin.