EDITORIAL

Sleepwalking into war

As AEROSPACE goes to press in mid-February there is an uneasy sense that the world is on a runaway train that is inevitably speeding up towards a major war between Russia and Ukraine.

This huge military build-up of Russian forces is no surprise attack but a blatant test of the West’s resolve in standing up for a friendly nation that has, what looks like, an invasion force massing on its border. But beyond the direct consequences in human lives and the immense destruction that a Russian invasion of Ukraine could cause and the potential for it to accidentally spiral out of control and escalate – there are other strategic implications for aviation, aerospace and space.

First is the supply of raw materials. Moscow’s chokehold over Europe’s energy supply is well known but it also supplies vast quantities of titanium that the aerospace industry relies on for jet engines and aircraft components. Though some firms have stockpiled and sought alternative suppliers, disruptions to this supply, sanctions or increased prices could add to the challenges for the aviation sector still reeling from Covid.

A similar story exists for materials used in US semiconductor chips – which could have implications for fragile global supply chains.

There is also the question over US and European-Russian co-operation in space. Though the NASARoscosmos partnership on the ISS has had its low points (allegations of sabotage of a Soyuz capsule in 2021) this international co-operation has survived other serious geopolitical tests, including the annexation of Crimea.

However, a direct invasion would threaten this peaceful relationship of exploration and science. In this theatre of brinkmanship, will Putin, having shown the audience ‘Chekhov’s gun’ in the form of this massive military build-up in Act I, feel compelled to use it in Act II? 

Tim Robinson 
FRAeS, Editor-in-Chief
tim.robinson@aerosociety.com
@RAeSTimR