AIR TRANSPORT RAeS Climate Change Conference

Climate control

Despite coronavirus wreaking havoc on the air transport industry in 2020, the drive to shift to a zero-carbon future has only accelerated. BILL READ FRAeS and ROGER WILTSHIRE FRAeS from the RAeS Greener By Design Group provide an overview of the Society’s first Climate Change conference held online in November.

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On 3-4 November 2020 the RAeS hosted its first annual Climate Change Conference. Speakers included representatives of government, industry, regulators and financiers and featured four panel discussions with airline CEOs, airports, OEM companies and fuel suppliers. This virtual, online, event was chaired by Geoff Maynard, Chair of the RAeS Greener by Design Group whose members had designed the conference programme. The title of the event, ‘Recovery Strategy with Climate Gain’, recognised that the industry is facing its greatest-ever crisis during the Covid-19 pandemic but also that it needs to address the longer-term climate crisis.

Geoff Maynard introduced the first day’s opening speaker, the Rt Hon Grant Shapps MP – Secretary of State for Transport, who gave a pre-recorded address. He drew parallels between the current Covid-19 situation and WWII, both national and international crises. The Covid-19 crisis represents an opportunity for a similar change of direction for the UK aviation industry as that prompted by the war. The UK was the first major economy to set a 2050 ‘net-zero’ commitment and, as air travel returns, the industry must also deliver reduced emissions.

Aiming for Jetzero

The UK government recently established the Jet Zero’ Council to co-ordinate the UK’s capability. The vision is for a new generation of innovators in the aviation sector to address climate change as the industry and world recovers from the crisis with a goal to demonstrate zero carbon flight across the Atlantic in the next ten years.

The UK needs to be part of the £4tn global future aircraft market by 2050 and Shapps listed the significant recent investments in research and development made by government and industry. A strong sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) production capability could also contribute £0.7-1.6bn to the UK economy by 2040, maybe 11,000 ‘green jobs’.

Brian Pearce, IATA, Chief Economist (IATA)

The Secretary of State stated the government’s priority is to tackle Covid-19 and get aviation going again. The aviation recovery plan will support the sector and maintain the skills required to permit its future growth in the UK.

Meanwhile, Brian Pearce, IATA’s Chief Economist, described the Covid-19 crisis as “the greatest shock to the aviation sector since WW2”, with passenger demand down to a third of 2019 levels. A limited recovery is underway but it will be much slower than after previous crises.

He reported that industry CO₂ emissions in 2020 could be half those in 2019 when it reached about 900m tonnes. Future CO₂ emissions per revenue tonne-kilometre (RTK) will benefit from the early retirement of older, less efficient aircraft types with a low double-digit improvement expected this year compared with the normal 2-3%.

Clean fuels, eg sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs) and electrification, are the long-term solution. The introduction of SAFs, in particular, is potentially easy to incentivise. 

Despite global government providing about $160bn of strategic aid, airlines are still ‘burning through their cash reserves’ and this raises serious questions about how some airlines will survive beyond the first quarter of 2021. Pearce noted that climate change appears to have retained the airlines’ focus during this situation possibly due, at least partly, to some governments linking aid to climate change commitments. Pearce pointed out the economic necessity of good air transport links but stressed that recovery has to be both with no infection transfer and with reducing emissions.

The view from ICAO

CORSIA’s pilot phase starts in January 2021 with 88 states participating. Each batch of SAF requires certification to determine the CO₂ saving attributable within the CORSIA system.

A parallel process is ICAO’s long-term global aspirational goal (LTAG) involving 600 scientists and specialists. It is currently reviewing the environmental data and scientific developments to support the 2022 CAEP meeting and 41st ICAO assembly. The process looks at improvement within the aviation sector, plus the capabilities of others, eg energy generation sector, and takes account of the government’s emissions commitments. Hupe described the road ahead as “a flying future but a sustainable flying future”.

UK Carbon Road Map

Following the break, Adam Morton, Chair of Sustainable Aviation (SA), the environmental coalition formed in 2005 covering 90% of the broader UK aviation industry, explained how SA believes the net-zero target can be achieved for UK aviation. 

Adam Morton. Chair, Sustainable Aviation. (SA)Morton focused on SA’s latest Carbon Road Map, published in February 2020. He explained each of the emission reduction pathways including aircraft – aircraft and engine efficiency, operational and airspace efficiency, carbon pricing and sustainable aviation fuels (SAF).

Market-based measures would also contribute to achieving the 2050 target, through CORSIA initially, with carbon offsets increasingly using carbon removal technology.

Morton reported constructive discussions between SA and the UK’s independent Committee on Climate Change (CCC) over the past 18 months and said: “We look forward to the next report from the CCC later in the year where we hope to see much less difference of opinion on how aviation can meet the net-zero target.”

SAF is seen as an important part of this strategy. SAF production itself can also be very positive economically. A study by E4Tech identified 14 possible plants at 7 sites around the UK, with some 6,000 new jobs and strong export/licensing potential. SA has asked the UK government for flagship funding for SAF pilot plants and continued support for aerospace R&D and leadership in airspace modernisation and internationally, with ICAO to ensure that UK leadership does not stand alone.

How green is my airport? ​

The final session of the day was a panel discussion with managers responsible for the environmental strategy of six major UK airports. The session was chaired by Karen Dee, CEO of the Airport Operators Association who said: “This has been an extraordinary year for airports. Post-Covid, meeting the climate change commitment is going to be high up on the agenda.”

Matt Gorman, Carbon Strategy Director at Heathrow Airport ( Heathrow)

Geoff Hunt, SVP Engineering and Technology at Pratt & Whitney, reported that the geared turbo-fan developed over ten years is delivering a 16% fuel burn improvement with less pollutant emissions and noise. However, the scaling up of drop-in alternative fuels is also imperative.

Sean Newsum, Director of Sustainability Strategy at Boeing, identified with the strategies of fellow panel members. He believed that commitments to net zero are solid within the sector and that achieving 2050 goals through one or two generations of technology will still need a massive boost in the penetration of alternative fuels.

Electric and hydrogen solutions​

Electrification was discussed with energy density of batteries agreed to be a limiting factor. The E-Fan X project has laid the Airbus groundwork now being taken forward through hydrogen.

Hunt pointed out the challenge for longer flights where weight on landing would pose a big design challenge. Newsum saw electrification being introduced in small fixed-wing aircraft as a proving ground for use in civil regional aircraft. Hybrid solutions may add a few percentage points efficiency gain but the panel took the view that this is not a game changer.

Hydrogen shows potential but huge technical challenges exist. Castle acknowledged the difficulties linked to the need for greater fuel carrying capacity. Airbus has set five years to tackle this and other design challenges if the target of a 2035 aircraft is to be realised. The panel agreed that water vapour climate effects and possible enhancement of contrails require further academic work.

Discussion of contrails noted that the debate was moving towards avoidance by changing flight altitudes together with advanced combustors. SAF could also reduce contrail generation but research remains critical and tests with aircraft on 100% SAF are taking place.

Secretary of State for Transport, Grant Shapps MP, provided the keynote, drawing similarities between the UK’s WW2 vision of post-war civil aviation and the 21st century Jet Zero goals.

False promises?

The view from the NGO community was given by Cait Hewitt, Deputy Director of the Aviation Environment Federation under the title ‘Can we rely on airlines’ promises to decarbonise?’ She reminded the conference that 2019 had the highest CO₂ 2 concentration on record and that September 2020 was the hottest September on record. She welcomed the airline sector commitment to net zero but questioned if future growth should be allowed.

Hewitt also questioned the industry’s confidence, noting that proposed solutions are not delivering as envisaged. Electric aviation may serve short-haul needs in time and hydrogen production would require green electricity to be of real value. Biofuels potential is limited and synthetic fuels derived from carbon capture may mature but the sector is in its infancy. Hewitt also warned the industry of potential noise issues (from AEF members) associated with airspace modernisation for greater efficiency.

In summary, she agreed that SA has a net-zero vision but regulatory and financial mechanisms do not exist to ensure delivery. The AEF advocates less aviation overall to make the problem manageable.